Last week I bought NFLX at ~$82 and PLTR at $130. My Blue fundamental screens rejected both — NFLX carries a -26% Margin of Safety and a P/FCF of 44x; PLTR is priced for perfection at 216x earnings. By every quantitative measure the screener uses, these are not Blue stocks.
And yet by Friday, NFLX was up +16.2% and PLTR was up +5.2% — both crushing SPY’s flat week (-0.1%) and my Blue-qualified buys PYPL (-0.9%) and PSA (+0.4%) by a wide margin.
Here’s the thing: this isn’t a story about breaking the rules. It’s a story about which rules apply to which stocks.
When I ran both NFLX and PLTR through my ATR Trailing Stoploss strategy (Strategy A) in TradingView, the backtests told a clear story. NFLX: 34 trades, profit factor 1.774, net P&L +7.62% on backtested capital. PLTR: 42 trades, profit factor 2.39, net P&L +23.24%. Strategy A triggered a buy signal on both — not because I felt good about them, but because a quantitative, backtested system said the entry conditions had been met.
The v2.3 workflow update I implemented two weeks ago exists precisely for this. Popular, well-known stocks like NFLX and PLTR are momentum names — they trend hard, they move fast, and they respond to catalysts in ways that pure fundamentals don’t capture. Strategy A is built for exactly that personality. The Blue screens filter for quality and value. Strategy A filters for timing. They’re not in conflict — they answer different questions.
NFLX then surged Friday on genuine news: it walked away from the Warner Bros. bid and pocketed a $2.8B breakup fee. That’s the catalyst. But the entry timing — buying at $82 when it had pulled back 40% from highs — that came from the strategy signal, not a gut feeling.
| Week Ending | This Week | YTD Performance |
|---|---|---|
| February 28, 2026 | SPY -0.1% / Blue +0.09% / Variance +0.2% | SPY +1.1% YTD / Blue tracking |
Last Week’s Picks: How Did They Perform?
This section tracks all positions opened in the past 4 weeks for full transparency. ETF auto-purchases excluded.
Week 9 New Positions (Feb 23–28)
| Ticker | Type | Entry Date | Entry Price | Feb 28 Close | Gain % | vs SPY | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | ⚠️ Momentum/Strategy A | Feb 25–26 | ~$82.84 avg | $96.24 | +16.2% | +16.3% | A+ |
| PLTR | ⚠️ Momentum/Strategy A | Feb 23 | $130.21 | $136.93 | +5.2% | +5.3% | A |
| PYPL | ✅ Blue-qualified | Feb 25 | $46.65 | $46.21 | -0.9% | -0.8% | C |
| PSA | ✅ Blue-qualified | Feb 26 | $301.87 | ~$303.00 | +0.4% | +0.5% | B |
Note: NFLX surge driven by Warner Bros. bid withdrawal (+$2.8B breakup fee). PYPL facing Stripe acquisition rumour reversal and earnings miss overhang.
Previous Weeks — Still Held
| Ticker | Entry Date | Entry Price | Feb 28 Close | Gain % | vs SPY | Weeks Held | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBH | Feb 9–11 | ~$65.77 avg | $70.21 | +6.8% | +6.9% | 3 | A |
| MFI.TO | Feb 10 | $27.19 CAD | $28.03 CAD | +3.1% | +3.2% | 3 | A |
| PPC | Feb 9 | $43.06 | ~$43.32 | +0.6% | +0.7% | 3 | B |
| SLVM | Feb 9 | $50.88 | ~$51.28 | +0.8% | +0.9% | 3 | B |
| META | Feb 11 | $666.70 | $648.18 | -2.8% | -2.7% | 3 | C |
| MSFT | Feb 9 | $411.70 (last entry) | $392.74 | -4.6% | -4.5% | 3 | D |
| CDW | Feb 10–11 | ~$140 avg | ~$123.00 | -12.1% | -12.0% | 3 | F |
3-Week Running Summary:
- Best performer: NFLX (+16.2% in one week)
- Biggest concern: CDW (-12.1% from entry, approaching 52-week low at $118)
- Quiet outperformer: PBH (+6.8%) — no fanfare, just steady compounding
- Grade Key: A = Beat SPY by >2% | B = Beat/lagged SPY by <1% | C = Lagged 1–3% | D = Lagged 3–5% | F = Lagged >5%
Lessons Learned Last Week
The Framework Isn’t One Thing — It’s Layers
The most honest takeaway from this week is that I’ve been thinking about the Blue methodology too narrowly.
NFLX and PLTR fail the Blue fundamental screens. That’s true and it will stay true. But the v2.3 workflow I built isn’t just “run the screens and buy what passes.” It’s a three-layer system: fundamental quality (the screens), entry timing (the strategies), and verification (volume + news). The screens answer should I own this? The strategy answers when do I get in?
For NFLX and PLTR specifically, the screens say no — the valuation is too stretched, the Margin of Safety too negative. I hold these as separate conviction/momentum positions, tracked distinctly from the Blue core. They’re not replacing a Blue slot. They’re a separate bucket, entered only when Strategy A fires on a name I believe in at a macro level.
What this week confirmed: Strategy A works on popular momentum names. PLTR’s backtest shows 42 historical trades at a 2.39 profit factor. That’s not noise — that’s a genuine edge in timing entries on that specific stock’s personality. When the signal fired, the entry was grounded in 5+ years of backtested history, not enthusiasm.
The lesson isn’t “break the rules when you like a stock.” It’s “know which rules apply to which kind of stock, and don’t confuse the layers.”
CDW is the other lesson this week. Down -12.1% from entry and sitting near its 52-week low ($118.44). The fundamentals still look reasonable — ROE 50%+, earnings beat last quarter — but the price action is telling a different story. This is on the watch list for next week’s v2.2 volume profile check. If I see distribution patterns, I’ll reassess the thesis. A stock can pass screens and still have an entry timing problem.
This Week’s Stock’s to Review
Priority 1 — Healthcare (most underweight sector)
| Ticker | MoS | F-Score | ROE | Signal | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMY | +17% | 8 | 38.2% | Buy-Ready | Run Strategy A/B/C |
| GSK | +10% | 8 | — | Buy-Ready | Run Strategy A/B/C |
Priority 2 — Materials / Financials
| Ticker | MoS | F-Score | ROE | Signal | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | +7% | 8 | — | Buy-Ready | Run Strategy A/B/C |
| SSNC | +41% | 7 | — | Buy-Ready | Run Strategy A/B/C |
On Watch — Entry Approaching
| Ticker | Status | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | Warming Up | RSI at 40.5 — watching for recovery above 45 |
| CRM | Warming Up | RSI 44.9 — one tick from trigger |
| LW | Warming Up | SMA20 crossover not yet confirmed |
This Week’s Market Context
What happened last week: The market was essentially flat (SPY -0.1%) despite significant individual stock volatility. The NVIDIA earnings beat failed to sustain a broader rally. Tariff uncertainty and sticky inflation data (PCE) are keeping the index range-bound.
Key events this week (Mar 2–6):
- ISM Manufacturing (Mon)
- ADP Employment (Wed)
- Jobs Report — Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri)
Pause conditions: A jobs report significantly above or below expectations could trigger a directional move. If NFP comes in hot (>250K), expect rate-cut expectations to fade and growth stocks to sell off. Consider waiting until after Friday before executing new Blue positions.
NFLX follow-through watch: Friday’s +16% surge on the Warner Bros. withdrawal is a strong catalyst. The question is whether buyers follow through into next week or whether this is a one-day pop. No action needed — just monitoring.
Blue Portfolio Performance Dashboard
| Metric | This Week | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Portfolio | +0.09% | Tracking |
| SPY Benchmark | -0.10% | +1.1% YTD |
| Variance | +0.2% | Closing the gap |
Disclaimer
This blog documents my personal investing journey using a systematic, rules-based approach. This is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. All content is for educational and entertainment purposes only.
I own positions in the stocks discussed. My analysis may be biased by my existing holdings. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock investing carries risk of loss.
Do your own research. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
Affiliate Disclosure: This blog may contain affiliate links to Stock Rover and other tools I use. I may earn a commission at no cost to you. I only recommend tools I personally use.
About Blue Portfolio:
The Blue Portfolio is a long-term, systematic value investing strategy targeting 50 high-quality stocks weighted by S&P 500 sector allocations. The strategy uses quantitative screens (Piotroski F-Score, Margin of Safety, ROE, Short Interest) combined with backtested entry timing strategies (Strategy A/B/C via TradingView Pine Script) to identify entry points.