Last week I published a buy plan with three names: CRM, ADBE, and G. All three passed every fundamental screen. The thesis was clear. On Monday morning I pulled up TradingView and waited for the entry signals.
None of them fired. Not on Monday. Not any day this week.
The market was in a sustained pullback and the backtested entry strategies simply never generated a signal. So I didn’t buy. Meanwhile, the pre-report due diligence sweep found something that would have blocked an add anyway — a stock I already own, scoring almost perfectly on paper, sitting inside a securities class action lawsuit filed two days before this week’s analysis.
| Week Ending | SPY | Blue Portfolio | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | −1.6% | −2.1% | −0.5pp |
| 4-week cumulative | −4.4% | −3.7% | +0.8pp |
Last Week’s Picks — Accountability Tracker
Positions opened March 3–5. ETF auto-buys excluded.
| Ticker | Entry | Mar 13 | Return | vs SPY | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | $430.45 | $439.96 | +2.2% | +3.8% | A |
| NFLX (add) | $96.40 | $95.31 | −1.1% | +0.5% | B |
| MSFT | $409.97 | $395.55 | −3.5% | −1.9% | C |
| META | $667.30 | $613.18 | −8.1% | −6.5% | F |
| KR | $68.87 | $75.60 | +9.8% | +11.4% | A+ |
| TGT | $113.03 | $117.34 | +3.8% | +5.4% | A |
Positions Closed This Week
| Ticker | Entry | Exit | Return | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROW | $105.43 | $94.48 | −10.4% | Value trap — methodology exit (Mar 3) |
| CDW | $140.93 | $119.77 | −15.0% | Volume distribution confirmed (Mar 10) |
| GNRC | $169.69 | $198.33 | +16.9% | Position cleanup |
| BLK | $1,087.29 | $932.31 | −14.3% | Position cleanup |
| SLVM | $50.88 | $43.08 | −15.3% | Position cleanup |
Prior Weeks — Still Held
| Ticker | Entry | Mar 13 | Return | Weeks | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX (original) | $84.82 | $95.31 | +12.4% | 4 | A+ |
| PLTR | $130.21 | $150.95 | +15.9% | 4 | A+ |
| AUPH | $14.60 | $13.95 | −4.5% | 4 | D |
| PYPL | $46.65 | $44.90 | −3.7% | 4 | D |
| PSA | $301.87 | $294.72 | −2.4% | 4 | C |
Lessons Learned Last Week
No Signal, No Buy — Even When the Plan Is Public
Last week I committed publicly to CRM, ADBE, and G. All three still pass the full Blue screen. None of the TradingView strategies fired on them this week. I didn’t buy. That’s the entire lesson.
The market pulled back hard. RSIs across the portfolio slid into the 20s and 30s. The strategies, backtested against historical price behavior, recognized this wasn’t a clean entry environment and stayed quiet. If I’d bought anyway, I’d be sitting on immediate drawdowns. Instead I’m in the same position I was last Monday — thesis intact, capital preserved, waiting for the system to say go.
Last week the lesson was that the signal triggers the buy, not the thesis. This week is the other side of the same coin.
The Stock That Looked Perfect — Until It Didn’t
Here is the translation: PYPL has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 — the maximum. Margin of Safety 38%. P/FCF under 8. No debt stress, no short interest concern. On every quantitative measure this portfolio uses, PayPal is one of its strongest holdings.
On March 12 and 13 — two days before this week’s analysis — three separate law firms filed securities class action lawsuits against PayPal. The allegations: management misled investors about revenue outlook throughout 2025. The CEO was replaced abruptly on February 3rd, the same day a Q4 miss sent the stock down ~20% in one session.
None of this shows up in the F-Score. Piotroski looks backward at financial statements. The lawsuits were filed this week.
This is the exact scenario the pre-report due diligence sweep was built for — a direct response to the FFIV incident in February, where a stock passed every screen but had a fraud lawsuit filed days earlier. PYPL passed the same screens. The sweep caught it before any new capital moved.
PYPL stays held. The fundamentals are intact so the hold is justified. But adding to an active class action, no matter how clean the numbers look, is a different decision.
This Week’s Buy Plan
CRM, ADBE, and G remain the queue — same thesis, same screens, still waiting on signals. INTU is the priority add from existing holdings (F:9, MoS:45%, SMA confirmed, RSI:49). Several held positions are also approaching add territory as RSIs hit oversold: MSFT (39), META (36), PPG (26). If their SMA 20 signals confirm, they get capital before any new positions do.
| Ticker | Key Metrics | Status |
|---|---|---|
| INTU (add) | F:9, MoS:45%, RSI:49 | SMA confirmed — execute on signal |
| CRM | F:7, MoS:44%, P/FCF:13.4 | Waiting on signal |
| ADBE | F:7, MoS:39%, ROE:61% | Waiting on signal |
| G | F:7, MoS:13%, P/FCF:10.2 | Waiting on signal |
This Week’s Market Context
SPY finished its third straight week in the red, now roughly 5% off its January highs. The driver: US-Iran conflict escalating, oil moving, geopolitical uncertainty compressing multiples. Quality businesses don’t change in three weeks of headlines — but the entry prices do, which is why the oversold RSIs across the portfolio are worth watching.
What would make me pause: SPY breaks below 20-week SMA on heavy volume with no recovery. Material news on CRM, ADBE, or G. PYPL litigation developments that change the hold picture.
Blue Portfolio Performance Dashboard
Blue underperformed SPY this week for the first time in four weeks. META (−8.1%) and MSFT (−3.5%) dragged, and the cleanup of several pre-methodology positions showed up in the numbers. The four-week picture still has Blue ahead by +0.8pp — but this week was an honest reminder that cleanup has a cost.
Every closed pre-methodology position — TROW, CDW, BLK, SLVM, GNRC — is the portfolio looking more like what it was designed to look like. The early entries were the most imperfect. That chapter is nearly done.
Next Week’s Focus
Technology signals are the gate — CRM, ADBE, G, and INTU add all queued. Healthcare is next: BMY (MoS:25%, F:8) and GSK (MoS:22%, F:8) both in Warming Up, BMY’s RSI already recovered, waiting on SMA confirmation.
Disclaimer
This blog documents my personal investing journey using a systematic, rules-based approach. This is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. All content is for educational and entertainment purposes only.
I own positions in the stocks discussed. My analysis may be biased by my existing holdings. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock investing carries risk of loss.
Do your own research. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.