Two weeks ago I bought NFLX at $82. The screens rejected it — Margin of Safety of -26%, P/FCF of 44x. But a backtested strategy signal said the timing was right, and I bought it anyway. Last week it was up +16%.
This week I sold TROW at a -10.4% loss. The screens had approved it — F-Score 7, ROE solid, dividend history impeccable. But I bought it before the methodology was fully built. If I ran TROW through today’s framework, it would have been flagged as a value trap: strong fundamentals, poor price performance over multiple years, consistently underperforming the index it’s supposed to beat. The system that approved NFLX as a momentum entry also told me that holding TROW was wishful thinking.
The lesson isn’t that I was wrong to build a process. It’s that the process took time to build — and the first entries happened before it was finished.
| Week Ending | This Week | YTD Performance |
|---|---|---|
| March 7, 2026 | SPY -1.3% / Blue est. -0.8% / Variance +0.5% | Closing the gap |
Last Week’s Picks: How Did They Perform?
All positions opened in the last 4 weeks. ETF auto-buys excluded. Entry prices from actual transaction data.
Week 10 — New Positions (Mar 2–4, 2026)
| Ticker | Type | Entry Date | Entry Price | Mar 7 Price | Gain % | vs SPY | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | ✅ Blue + Strategy A | Mar 2–3 | $430.45 avg | $481.17 | +11.8% | +13.1% | A+ |
| NFLX (add) | ⚠️ Strategy A | Mar 2 | $96.40 | $99.02 | +2.7% | +4.0% | A |
| MSFT | ✅ Blue-qualified | Mar 4 | $409.97 | $408.96 | -0.2% | +1.1% | B |
| META | ✅ Blue-qualified | Mar 4 | $667.30 | $644.86 | -3.4% | -2.0% | C |
Positions Closed This Week
| Ticker | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROW | $105.43 | $94.48 | -10.4% | Value trap — exited per methodology review |
Prior Weeks — Still Held
| Ticker | Entry Date | Entry Price | Mar 7 Price | Gain % | vs SPY | Weeks Held | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | Feb 18–25 | $84.82 avg | $99.02 | +16.7% | Running | 3 | A+ |
| PLTR | Feb 23 | $130.21 | $157.16 | +20.7% | Running | 3 | A+ |
| PYPL | Feb 25 | $46.65 | $46.97 | +0.7% | +2.0% | 3 | B |
| PSA | Feb 26 | $301.87 | $308.13 | +2.1% | +3.4% | 3 | A |
| AUPH | Feb 23 | $14.60 | $14.32 | -1.9% | -0.6% | 3 | C |
| PBH | Feb 9 | $65.77 | $67.19 | +2.2% | Running | 4 | A |
| MFI.TO | Feb 10 | $27.19 CAD | $28.51 CAD | +4.9% | Running | 4 | A |
| PPC | Feb 9 | $43.06 | $40.77 | -5.3% | -4.0% | 4 | F |
| CDW | Feb 10 | $141.36 | $123.42 | -12.7% | -11.4% | 4 | F |
| MSFT (prior lot) | Feb 9 | $411.70 | $408.96 | -0.7% | Running | 4 | B |
| NVDA | Feb 9 | $191.53 | $177.82 | -7.2% | Running | 4 | D |
4-Week Summary:
- Standout: INTU +11.8% in its first week. PLTR and NFLX (prior lots) both running above +16%.
- Ongoing concern: CDW -12.7% from entry, now near 52-week low. PPC -5.3%. Both were pre-methodology builds — on watch.
- Grade Key: A = Beat SPY by >2% | B = ±1% of SPY | C = Lagged 1–3% | D = Lagged 3–5% | F = Lagged >5%
Lessons Learned Last Week
The System Can’t Grade Homework It Didn’t Assign
When I started the Blue Portfolio, I was buying before the methodology included backtesting my strategies. TROW, CDW, PPC — these weren’t bad picks by gut instinct. Some of them even passed early-version screens. But the current workflow — Piotroski gates, Margin of Safety requirements, the short interest flags, the TradingView Strategies — none of that was fully in place when I pulled the trigger.
TROW is the clearest example. On paper, it looked like a solid value play: an asset management firm with a long dividend growth record, reasonable valuation, and strong brand recognition. What the mature version of the methodology catches that the early version missed is the multi-year price trend relative to the index. TROW has lagged the S&P 500 for years while appearing to be fundamentally healthy. That’s the definition of a value trap — you wait for the reversion, and the reversion never comes because the market has correctly priced in structural headwinds that the quantitative screen doesn’t see. Once that flag was formalized in the workflow, the right call became obvious. I took the -10.4% and moved on.
The constructive framing here is that building a system iteratively means the early entries are the most imperfect. Every sell of a pre-methodology position is the portfolio getting cleaner.
Takeaway: A stock that would fail today’s screens shouldn’t get a pass just because it was bought under yesterday’s rules. Exits aren’t admissions of failure — they’re the system self-correcting.
INTU and NFLX: The Same Signal, Two Different Stocks
Last week I wrote about buying NFLX at $82 when the screens rejected it — Margin of Safety -26%, P/FCF of 44x. A Strategy A backtest fired the signal: 34 trades, profit factor 1.77. NFLX returned +16% that week.
INTU this week is the exact same story. The fundamentals are there — F-Score 9, MoS 33%, ROE 23%, P/FCF 19.8 — but that’s not what triggered the buy. Two weeks ago INTU was in Warming Up: RSI at 40.5, SMA signal not yet confirmed. Last week’s post flagged it as a watch item. Then Strategy A fired. I bought March 2–3 at an average of $430.45. By Friday it closed at $481.17, up +11.8% in five days.
The point isn’t that INTU is a better business than NFLX — it probably is, but that’s not the lesson. The point is that the strategy signal worked identically on both: a pullback to a technically oversold level, a backtested entry trigger, and an entry that rewarded the patience of waiting for the signal rather than chasing the thesis. NFLX had the signal without the fundamentals. INTU had both. In neither case did I buy because I felt good about the story. I bought because the system said go.
The difference between INTU and TROW — the stock I sold this week at -10.4% — isn’t that TROW had bad fundamentals. It’s that TROW never had a signal. Just a thesis, and a hope that the price would eventually catch up to the quality. It didn’t. INTU had a thesis and a signal. That’s the whole framework in one week.
This Week’s Buy Plan
Stocks This Week:
| Ticker | Sector | Entry Target | Key Metrics | Why Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Technology | $250–300 starter | F:7, MoS:44%, P/FCF:13.4, RSI:52 | Top Tech gap candidate — best MoS on Buy-Ready list |
| ADBE | Technology | $200–250 starter | F:7, MoS:39%, ROE:61%, P/FCF:12.3 | Exceptional software quality, SMA confirmed |
| G (Genpact) | Technology | $150–200 starter | F:7, MoS:13%, P/FCF:10.2, RSI:57 | Best value on list by P/FCF — IT outsourcing |
| PYPL | Financial Services | Hold only | F:9, P/FCF:8.2 | ⚠️ Active lawsuits + CEO exit — do not add until resolved |
Execution plan: CRM and ADBE are the priority. Both address the Technology sector gap (-15.3% underweight vs S&P 500 target). G fills the same gap with better value metrics. All three passed the full Buy-Ready screen with SMA confirmed.
Commitment: If the weekly chart holds on Monday open, CRM and ADBE get executed. G follows in the back half of the week.
This Week’s Market Context
The market pulled back -1.3% last week (SPY). The conflict in Iran was the dominant headline, and markets don’t like geopolitical uncertainty. That’s the environment we deployed into this week.
What would make me pause this week:
- SPY breaks below 20-week SMA on heavy volume
- VIX sustained above 25 into Tuesday
- Any material news on CRM, ADBE, or G before execution
Blue Portfolio Performance Dashboard
| Metric | This Week | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Portfolio (est.) | ~-0.8% | Holdings-weighted estimate |
| SPY Benchmark | -1.3% | Broad market pullback |
| Variance | +0.5% | Outperformed in a down week |
Next Week’s Focus
Healthcare is the next gap to close. GSK (MoS 22%, F:8, RSI 40.6) and BMY (MoS 25%, F:8, RSI 52.4) are both in Warming Up — BMY’s RSI has already recovered, it’s just waiting for the SMA confirmation. These are the highest-priority names outside of Technology.
Cirrus Logic (CRUS) is the Technology watchlist name with the strongest fundamental score — F:9, MoS 19% — but RSI and SMA are both still pending. This one is worth patience.
CDW review: Down -12.7% from entry and approaching the 52-week low at $118.44. Fundamentals still hold (ROE 50%+, last earnings beat), but the price action has been consistently weak. Running a volume profile check this week. If distribution pattern confirms, this becomes the next pre-methodology exit candidate.
Disclaimer
This blog documents my personal investing journey using a systematic, rules-based approach. This is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. All content is for educational and entertainment purposes only.
I own positions in the stocks discussed. My analysis may be biased by my existing holdings. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock investing carries risk of loss.
Do your own research. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
Affiliate Disclosure: This blog may contain affiliate links to Stock Rover and other tools I use. I may earn a commission at no cost to you. I only recommend tools I personally use.
About Blue Portfolio:
The Blue Portfolio is a long-term, systematic value investing strategy targeting 50 high-quality stocks weighted by S&P 500 sector allocations. The strategy uses quantitative screens (Piotroski F-Score, Margin of Safety, ROE, Short Interest) combined with technical confirmation and backtested entry timing strategies to identify entry points.
Current Allocation:
- Individual Stocks + Bets: 58.9%
- ETFs (Passive): 41.1%
- Target: 60% / 30% / 10% (Stocks / ETFs / Cash)
Read the full methodology: [Link to methodology page] Subscribe for weekly updates: [Link to email signup]